Commentary

Each month, the BCWM Portfolio Management team publishes an Investment Commentary that examines the latest developments in financial markets and the economy. We filter out the noise and present the information most relevant to our investment strategies and management of our clients’ portfolios.

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Don’t Drink the Kool-Aid

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Late last year, a slew of worrisome economic data suggested that a recession was right around the corner. And suddenly EVERYONE was bracing for a downturn in the economy. Many were calling it the most anticipated recession of all time. At BCWM, we were also on recession watch. The same troubling data had us concerned.…
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Consider the Source

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Recently, Fitch, one of the three big credit-rating agencies, downgraded the debt of the United States from AAA to AA+. Fitch’s reasoning boils down to high and growing levels of government debt and an increasingly dysfunctional government. There are several things to point out about this downgrade. First, the downgrade means very little. There is…
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One Big Non-Event?

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In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and at the time, conventional wisdom seemed to say that Russia was so massive and powerful and Ukraine so much smaller and not powerful that it would be a rather short conflict. Sixteen months later, the ultimate outcome still seems rather in doubt . . . particularly after this…
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Global Deadbeat? . . . Not Quite Yet.

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Allegedly, the United States will soon run out of money. Unless Congress quickly votes to increase the amount of debt we are authorized to issue (aka the “debt ceiling”), our country will soon be a very large global deadbeat. The largest global deadbeat in the history of the globe. We say “allegedly,” because every time…
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It’s a Wonderful Life

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A year ago today, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to fight inflation. And since then, the Fed has raised rates eight times (a total of 4.5%). Prior to this, we were in an environment where rates were held artificially low. And it was a wild world. Just like in 2008, when people were…
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