Commentary

Each month, the BCWM Portfolio Management team publishes an Investment Commentary that examines the latest developments in financial markets and the economy. We filter out the noise and present the information most relevant to our investment strategies and management of our clients’ portfolios.

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OIL, OIL, OIL

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UPDATE: Immediately after we wrote this commentary, President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iran to allow for talks to end “hostilities.” Iranian officials denied any direct communication, but markets reacted anyway. Oil dropped from nearly $100 to $85 per barrel, stocks jumped roughly 2%, and interest rates moved noticeably lower. The biggest…
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Checks and Balances

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Back in the day, our forefathers did a pretty good job of anticipating many of the stupid things our leaders might attempt at one time or another. They wrote a document (the Constitution?) that basically says, “you guys” (Congress) make the laws, and “you” (the president) enforce the laws, and “you guys” (The Supreme Court)…
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Putting Every Nickel Into Gold And Silver

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It seems that whenever there is new and unusual financial turmoil in the world, the value of the dollar is frequently listed as an eventual victim. Maybe this time it’s true. Maybe this time the dollar will cease to be the world’s reserve currency. Maybe this time some other nation or nations (the BRICS?) or…
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2025: More Than Cats in Tuxedos

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Since the end of 2014, the stock market has increased over 13% per year . . . one of the best decades in investing history. During that same period, the Kansas City Chiefs made the playoffs each year, winning three Super Bowls along the way. Coincidence? Let’s hope so . . . because the Chiefs…
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SHUT-UP

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Last weekend, CBS Sunday Morning ran a piece on the growing popularity of prediction markets. They spotlighted Kalshi, a platform where you can now trade contracts on everything from Fed rate decisions to whether Kylie Kelce or Blake Lively will be a bridesmaid when Taylor Swift finally ties the knot. That’s a lighthearted example, but…
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