Commentary

Each month, the BCWM Portfolio Management team publishes an Investment Commentary that examines the latest developments in financial markets and the economy. We filter out the noise and present the information most relevant to our investment strategies and management of our clients’ portfolios.

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Kumbaya or Nah?

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There are two likely paths for the U.S. economy in the year ahead: 1) Continued high inflation 2) Recession There is also a third possibility: a combination of the two, also known as “stagflation,” but we don’t classify it as “likely.” With continued high inflation, the Federal Reserve is in the hot seat. Its goal…
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Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide

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Every now and then there comes a year that proves to be a very difficult time to make money. 2022 is shaping up to be one of those years. Both U.S. and international stock markets are down over 15%. The worst stocks to own this year have been in the NASDAQ index, primarily those “stay…
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Ukraine and Inflation

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When we published our Investment Commentary at the end of February, Russia had just invaded Ukraine. Since then, more than ten million people have fled their homes in Ukraine (a quarter of the country) and an unconfirmed number have died (likely in the thousands). The Western world condemned the invasion and almost immediately instituted economic…
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The Cold War Heats Up

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Late last night, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s no secret it has been building up troops with precisely this in mind. Contrary to President Vladimir Putin’s recent assertions that Russia was undertaking a limited “liberation” of separatist regions of Ukraine, he has now opted for a full-scale takeover of the country. So,…
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Inflation, Deflation, and a Dot-com Redux

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For the 12-month period ending in December, the CPI (Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation) increased 7%. The past few months have seen the largest increase in this measure in forty years. This was not much of a surprise to anyone and there are more than a few that believe the CPI number actually…
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